A Alert for Keir Starmer from His Personal History: If You're Not Bold regarding Brexit and the EU, His Labour Rivals Will Be.

Seven years ago, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.